Plastic Forecast

Footnotes

Plastic production is set to triple by 2060

More than 400 million tonnes of new plastic is produced each year, and this figure is rising[1]. We recycle just 9% of it [2]. The World Economic Forum estimates by 2050, there will be more plastic in the ocean than fish[3] .

Our planet is at plastic capacity.

We need to act now.

Why Paris?

Global leaders are meeting in Paris, France for the second round of negotiations for a plastic treaty. To get as close to the discussion as possible, we’ve chosen to launch the Plastic Forecast there.

However, ‘plastic rain’ is a global issue.

Soon, the Plastic Forecast will report on other major cities.

How the Plastic Forecast is calculated

Our atmosphere contains plastic particles that fall to the ground consistently – even more so when it rains.

The Plastic Forecast combines research on atmospheric plastic dynamics[4] with traditional weather forecasts to estimate the daily ‘plastic fall’ in an easy-to-understand weather report for Paris.

The figures in this report are predominantly based on fibre-shaped microparticles. Using the latest available technologies, new studies are finding more types, shapes, and smaller plastic particles. It is likely that the actual amount of plastic being deposited is much higher than the Plastic Forecast estimates.

In other words, the Plastic Forecast is even worse than it looks.

The study confirms plastic particles in our atmosphere are constantly being deposited on ground, even without rainfall. This is why, even at 0% chance of precipitation, there will always be ‘plastic rain’ to report.

Plastic is falling all the time, all over the world.

1.https://plasticseurope.org/knowledge-hub/plastics-the-facts-2022/

2.Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Global Plastics Outlook: Economic Drivers, Environmental Impacts and Policy Options. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; 2022. Accessed December 15, 2022. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1787/de747aef-en

3. World Economic Forum, 2016, The New Plastics Economy: Rethinking the future of plastics

4.Dris, R., Gasperi, J., Tassin, B. (2018). Sources and Fate of Microplastics in Urban Areas: A Focus on Paris Megacity. In: Wagner, M., Lambert, S. (eds) Freshwater Microplastics . The Handbook of Environmental Chemistry, vol 58. Springer, Cham.https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-61615-5_4

Open Letter

Change the Forecast

To our World Leaders,

At Minderoo Foundation, we've made it our mission to eliminate the harmful effects of plastic on people and the planet.

That’s why this is our moment to change the #PlasticForecast.

Plastic waste is devastating our planet and has accumulated to such an extent it is now being found in our rain. We recycle just 9% of the plastic we produce.

Producing new plastic from fossil fuels impacts not just our environment, but our health. With global plastic production projected to triple by 2060, our planet and future generations will not be able to cope.

We need binding controls on the production and consumption of virgin fossil fuel plastics, and must agree on effective targets to reduce our global plastic footprint, so that we have a chance of ending plastic pollution.

We've made recommendations which will have a profoundly positive effect in dealing with the problem. These include limiting plastic derived from fossil fuels, establishing an urgent transition to a safe and circular plastics economy, and addressing the market failures that favour continuing production and consumption of new plastic which perpetuate the problem.

We need our world leaders to take ambitious action and establish a strong and binding plastic treaty that is guided by the best available science and knowledge.

We need to act now. For the future of our planet.

We need to act now.

For the future of our planet.